Déracinement of Foreign Alliances plus some military alliances is on the rise across Asia and Eurasia, evident recently with the realignment of India and Japan toward Russia economically, India toward Russia economically and militarily, in turn requiring realignment of China and Taiwan: the latter toward United States, China away there from, quietly, sometimes clandestinely. This poses consequences for the BRIC nations, three of which are Asian: Chinese imports from Japan, India’s security from Pakistan, Eurasian and Trans-Pacific trade patterns. Also, it will require China to hasten its expansion across Pakistan (or Myanmar) in search of a West coast, and China’s entry into Central and Eastern Europe for tariff reduction aims. Already, this déracinement has motivated China to improve its relations with some ASEAN nations before COVID-19, resulting in trade creation, investment creation, trade diversion, investment diversion, across Asia and beyond. Some Threats, many Opportunities, seem to emerge. Foremost amongst them is the lurking question whether Mainland China will become a “party” or a “signatory” to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), also known as TPP-11 or TPP 11,1 successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) from which the United States withdrew in 2017. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis that China delayed reporting, many neighbouring Asian nations and Western countries are reassessing trade with China in the near term. The best options will be for China and other Asian nations to focus on new technologies, new industries they will introduce: three-dimensional (“3D”) printing as an example. Instead, China seems bent on creating new investment partnerships, largely in Eurasia as part of its “Belt and Road Initiative” or “BRI”, facially in order to deliver goods to Europe efficiently, really to dilute regional influence of the Russian Federation, India and Turkey generally, especially in Europe plus in former Soviet Union provinces to Russia’s detriment.2
Dr. David A. Jones
Foreign Policy and International Management University of Warsaw, Poland.
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